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VIEWPOINT OIL PALAVER AND NEED FOR CAUTION

Oil prices started off on a positive note 2022, defying experts’ prediction of a ballooning surplus, instead surpassing $90 a barrel in the last week of January. Prices and options contracts invoking the prospect of crude spiralling above $100, the commodity is threatening to intensify the inflationary pain felt by major consumers.

But the rally seems a bad news for refined fuel-hungry countries like Nigeria with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) now paying more in petrol subsidy and negatively impacting its contribution to the federation account.

There is a significant worsening of this situation by Russia invasion of Ukraine.

Nigeria, a key OPEC member has also struggled to meet its oil allocation from the producers’ group, with flows of the once-key export grade Bonny Light now trickling out with significant delays. Nigeria is pumping roughly 1.35 million barrels , the lowest figure in years.

Goldman Sachs Group’s head of Global Research, said that only two countries in the world – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – can pump more today than they did in January 2020 before the pandemic really hit demand.

“That could see the oil market tighten over the next three to six months,” he said.

Morgan Stanley expects Brent to climb beyond  $90 a barrel by the third quarter and estimates that observable stockpiles fell by about 690 million barrels last year.

Now let us look at how this affects Nigeria. As a result of this rise in price, multiple factors will shape the economy’s direction in 2022. Never forget that electioneering activities are on. This and the potential removal of fuel subsidy to be key drivers of implementing economic policies, coupled with economic fortunes regarding inflation and monetary policy. With economic growth likely to be about 1.6% y/y, buoyed by a decent recovery in the oil sector from a two-year-long recession, as an increase in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s production quota and the low base effect will drive growth.   There is prospect for sustained growth in the agricultural and services sectors, supported by strong demand for food and improved internet adoption amid the roll-out of the 5G network. On price movement, we should  anticipate inflationary pressures to weigh on the market as the high base effect wears off and the true impact of imported inflation reflects on the headline inflation numbers.  Government should therefore be very careful with the subsidy issues. Though one needs to understand government’s position in this area-big dialema. An albatross so to say.

With improving demand, tightening inventories, and questions of OPEC’s ability to ramp further, the directional arrows of progress point to further optimism. Movements in the price of oil are felt more keenly and quickly than that of any other commodity because they pass almost immediately into the cost of end-products such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel. Then the cost of transportation and distribution in a country like Nigeria without functional public transportation that is pocket-friendly

While Nigerians wait with apprehension for the planned removal of subsidy in the year, there were riots across Kazakhstan after the government there allowed the price of liquefied petroleum gas – a key road fuel – to surge. There is a possibility of this in Nigeria if government removes subsidy on petrol. It is therefore incumbent on the government to disregard those calling on it to remove fuel subsidy. Rather, it should concentrarate on diversifying the economy while working towards attaining local refining capacity.

The dynamic means prices will be monitored closely by central bank of Nigeria that is trying to keep a lid on inflation while at the same time fostering economic growth as nations emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Oil Price rise and the Challenge of Economic Diversification

Economic prospects of Nigeria and other African oil producing countries of Angola, South Sudan are looking bright with the consistent rise in oil prices over the past few months.  Brent crude has witnessed steady rise of more than 90 per cent since November last year. If the high prices are to hold up for longer, these countries are sure to witness rapid economic revival from the impact of prolonged oil slump and COVID-19, which had weakened their fiscal positions, accumulated reserves. This is especially true in respect to Nigeria, runs a deficit budget. The same situation go on in Angola, not to talk of South Sudan. In Nigeria there is need to invest in repairing local refineries, so that subsidy payment does not eat up the gains of the present wind fall. Nigeria is unique because of its production of Bonny Light crude oil, which is used to fly aircraft.it should be refined in Nigeria.

The latest Regional Economic Outlook (REO) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had noted in April that oil prices and early vaccine roll-outs support the outlook for many   economies. The recent increase in oil prices is sure to boost confidence, supporting non-oil GDP, which was projected to expand by 2.3 per cent in 2021, with an assumption of average Brent prices around $60 a barrel.

With the brent prices crossing $72 in the last week of June, various forecasts suggest that crude prices could cross $100 in 2022. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA) forecast recently said Brent will now average $68 a barrel in 2021, compared to an earlier estimate of $63 per barrel. BofA sees the Brent price averaging as much as $75 a barrel in 2022, up from a previous forecast of $60 per barrel.

Nigeria and many other oil dependent economies were impacted by long term decline in prices since 2016 that was accentuated by further collapse in demand following the COVID-19      pandemic.

Between mid-2014 and early 2016, the global economy faced one of the largest oil price declines in modern history. The 70 per cent price drop during that period was one of the three biggest declines since World War II.

Booming US shale oil production played a significant role in the collapse of oil prices from mid-2014 to early 2016. Efficiency gains in the sector lowered break-even prices considerably, making US shale oil the de facto marginal cost producer on the international oil market.

Although supply side interventions by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia have been able to limit the oil slump with limited success, the longer-term sustainability is largely a function of global demand.

Look beyond cycles

While the global oil majors and most analysts do not see oil heading to a new super cycle, they acknowledge that prices still have room to rise from current levels because of a strong demand rebound and expected tightness in supply. Trends and cycles in oil demand and prices will remain a major driver of the Nigerian economy for a long time, just as for the Gulf region. There is now urgent need to double up on the path of economic diversification.

The long-term demand slump and low oil prices had driven home the need to diversify government income streams triggering deep fiscal and structural reforms in many sub Saharan African economies in recent times. At the local level min Nigeria here, government should take urgent steps as follows.

First, the country should make its bottomless well of resources to back its currency- the Naira at a rate of N50 to the American dollar while it should do its refining locally. Despite all the talks about oil going out of fashion, Bonny light stands its ground for many years to come. This is a great weapon in the hand of the Nigerian government to negotiate its loans.  Without Bonny light no aircraft can fly. So Nigeria flies the world and our economists know this! Why not help government with advice?

Two, FG should pour stimulus packages on small businesses and artisans.

Three, the country should stop giving its crude resources away to the West and China in crude form, more or less giving them for free with the present value of the Naira. These people have nothing for Africa. No plan to make Africa rise and China is the worst of them all!  So effort should be made to ban timber export forthwith, whoever needs our timber should come establish factory to process it here.

Four, Nigeria government should scale up agriculture and its value-chain, and export processed products. Three, Nigeria government should activate entrepreneurship and infrastructure. Five, the government should involve in massive human capital development to realize President Mohammadu Buhari vision of lifting 100 million people out of poverty.

The revival in the global oil demand and prices is an opportunity for Nigeria, and African oil countries governments, to accelerate their efforts towards further diversification rather than slipping back to the boom bust cycles dictated by oil market volatility.

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Governance Outlook As President Buhari Focuses On Nation Building, Security And Unity Of Nigeria

The plans of the Federal Government in growing the economy and changing the lives and livelihood of Nigerians for the better is largely dependent on the shape of events this year. Unarguably, President Muhammadu Buhari focuses on nation-building, security and unity of Nigeria, despite the country’s many challenges. He is passionate about laying a solid foundation for the transformation of the country which future leadership can take forward.

Nigeria faces challenges no doubt, and 2021 is a pivotal year. To state that Nigerians live in challenging times is also true. The realities include a world faced with a pandemic the scale of which hasn’t been seen in 100 years. The crisis has crippled economies of many powerful countries. And last year, it destroyed global supply chains and disorganized once productive and viable sectors of the economy in different countries.

Nigeria has its own fair share of these. According to the world bankwhile Nigeria has made some progress in socio-economic terms in recent years, its human capital development remains weak due to under-investment. “It ranked 152 of 157 countries in the world bank’s 2018 human capital Index.The country continues to face massive developmental challenges, including the need to reduce the dependency on oil and diversify the economy, address insufficient infrastructure, build strong and effective institutions, as well as address governance issues and public financial management systems. These pre-existing structural challenges have left the Nigerian economy especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 outbreak and its consequences.

Inequality, in terms of income and opportunities, remains high and has adversely affected

poverty reduction. The lack of job opportunities is at the core of the high poverty levels, regional inequality, and social and political unrest.”

Despite all these, the Buhari administration has within limited resources designed responses that are targeted at mitigating the full impact of these scourges. What happens this year determines how well the responses will succeed.

But the country, in fragile financial and social health, is being propped up by an army of certain nationalist individuals in a crusade against people bet

ting on its demise. Key members of President Buhari’s cabinet, policymakers, and certain influential characters are among these pillars of support.

These include Vice President YemiOsinbajo, National Security Adviser, Gen Munguno; DG  Directorate of state security  (DSS)YussufBichi, the ministers of Interior, RaufAregebesola, Transport-Rotimi Amaechi, Works and Housing-Babatunde Fashola, Communication and digital economy-Isah Pantami, Finance-Zainab Ahmed, Health-OsagieEhanire, Trade, and Commerce-Niyi Adebayo, Labour-Chris Ngige, members of the Governors Forum, led by Ekiti state Governor KayodeFayemi, the Governor Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Economic Advisory Council led by Prof Doyin Salami.  These will help shape events this year, along with some critical agencies and MDAs such as the Nigeria Customs Service and the Nigerian Ports Authority.

Influential characters outside government include former President Olusegun Obasanjo,  former Heads of State: General Yakubu Gowon, General AbdulsalamAbubakar, former Vice–President Atiku Abubakar, GeneralTheophilus Danjuma, Chief Edwin Clarke, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Prof Wole Soyinka, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

So what’s up? What happens this year?

The Economic Sustainability Plan of the Federal Government has earmarked N2.7 trillion earmarked for it,  in spending to create and sustain jobs and livelihoods for those who have been impacted the most by the COVID-19 crisis. The Federal Government will also galvanize productivity through various other packages designed to boost the SMEs across the country.

Despite battling with low public revenues, and the hydra-headed monster of low oil price and a reduced production quota from OPEC, this administration remains committed to honouring the promises made to the Nigerian people across the key areas of Security, Economy and fighting Corruption.

The year will witness one or two Inter-Ministerial Retreats being held. The entire Government apparatus will gather to review performance over the lastone year, with a singular objective of identifying how to improve in those areas where successes fell short of target, and how to replicate those key elements that led to success in others.

Frank conversations will take place between the participants and independent assessors. Amongst the critical themes that emerged from the two-day session was the need to improve focus, coordination, and collaboration amongst Ministries, Departments, and Agencies, and the importance of rigorous execution, monitoring, and evaluation of projects and activities against set targets.

Expectedly, Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council, (PEBEC) led by Professor YemiOsinbajo will feature prominently to define the course of the year. In a renewed attempt at further deepening the reforms of the nation’s business environment, the PEBECmembers will work seamlessly with ProfessorOsinbajo.

Others of the PEBEC  include the Ministers of Industry Trade and Investment, OtunbaNiyi Adebayo, the Vice Chairman of PEBEC; Finance, Budget, and National Planning, HajiyaZainab Ahmed; Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi; Information, Alhaji Lai Mohammed; Interior, OgbeniRaufAregbesola; Budget and National Planning (State), Clem Agba; Special Adviser on Ease of Doing Business, Dr. JumokeOduwole, and Senator AishatuDahiru Ahmed, representing the National Assembly among other top government officials.

Recently, PEBEC has resolved that CEOs and Heads of some Federal Government regulatory agencies be presented with the outcome of a recent survey that exposes major pitfalls in the operations of the agencies.

The Cost of Compliance Report which was presented to the Council at its first virtual meeting of early this year revealed persistent corruption, the duplicity of functions, poor service orientation, and several anti-business disposition in some of the regulatory agencies.

Vice President YemiOsinbajo, SAN, who presided over the meeting directed that CEOs and heads of such government regulatory agencies involved should be presented with the outcomes, and interaction should take place regarding some of the worrying disclosures in the report of the survey conducted by Pricewaterhouse Coopers, PwC.

Prof Osinbajo who said the report revealed human issues that are not unavoidable, stressed the important roles regulatory agencies play in ensuring businesses are able to thrive seamlessly without inhibition. He noted that doing otherwise would only jeopardize the government’s efforts in creating a conducive business environment. The focus will be on this area this 2021.

In the area of domestic policy actions this year, Nigerians will see critical decisions being taken around the economy. These are decisions which previous governments had neglected over the years, and as a result, cost the country several billions of dollars.

These domestic policy decisions are by no means easy but are in the best interest of development and President Buhari’s nation-building effort. The impact of this decision is to have an improved allocation of very scarce resources, create an opportunity for private sector investment to return to sectors where government intervention had created distortions in various ways. The return of the private sector promotes job creation and provides for the entrepreneurial genius that is embedded in Nigerians.

President Buhari will move to settle the rift between farmers and Fulani herders in the South-west, where the issue had blown into an open confrontation in Ondo and Oyo state, where there was even direct attack on the Seriki Fulani at Igangan town, Ibarapa area of Oyo state.  The president is also aware that there are historic fissures that exist in various locations across the country. Of course, he has advocated for dialogues between key parties who are direct stakeholders in ensuring peace.

Many elder statesmen, traditional rulers, and influential figures will be playing a leading role in bridging and or mediating these fissures to bring about lasting peace.  This is one area where influential people like His Eminence the Sultan of Sokoto and Ooni of Ife and some other traditional rulers will matter this year. General Gowon and  General Abdulsalam Abubakar will probably go round on peace-building initiatives to meet stakeholders, mostly traditional rulers.

In a highly fragmented landscape, Chief  Olusegun Obasanjo has mastered the art of using the media “to really stoke excitement.” We can expect him to that this year. Gen Danjuma, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, and Sheik Gumi will also be in the news.

Other giants like  Atiku, Adebanjo, and Clarke are also there. But Obasanjo is probably more of an attention-seeking persona, he’s much more of a showman. We will see pretty much of this in the course of the year.

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Swept on by the success of his strategy and big thinking, he is considered by many fans to be a visionary, his slightest word enough to sway millions of people.

the mere mention of the name of the publisher of the Nation newspaper apparently delights many people. He is likely going to be much in the news this year.

All these influential figures will shape the year pretty much. They will invest their time in trying to ensure the unity of the Nigerian state. They will build bridges over those fault lines and pour water to douse the burning embers of ethnicity and religious differences so that the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence become cherished as common assets for all.RaufAregbesola, minister of interior will be much involved with this. So also is  AlhajiBich, DG DSS as well as General Monguno, the National Security Adviser.

Government’s attention will also be on employment generation. President Buhari is known to be concerned with how Nigeria growing youthful population can compete in a world that has no boundaries and barriers, given the country’s natural resources and its very fertile land. Focus will be  on how the country can best improve agricultural practices and increase yields per hectare, so that youth are encouraged into agriculture as a choice and farmers benefit from their sweat and honest labour.

These are the things that will occupy governance in 2021. They will occupy the thoughts of the  President Buhari too, as he is focused on deepening Nigeria’s unity and laying a solid foundation for the transformation of  the country so that future leadership can build on, march towards prosperous nation building.

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Appointment of Service Chiefs: A Lift-off for Great New Benefits for Nigerians

President Muhammadu Buhari has gone up with the appointment of some of the most intelligent and knowledgeable officers in the Nigerian armed forces as service chiefs early this year. On Tuesday, January 26, the president removed all the four former service chiefs, replacing them with young vibrant officers. These included General Lucky Irabor, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Lt-General Ibrahim Attahiru, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Air Marshall Oladayo Amao, Chief of Air Staff (CAS), and Vice Admiral Zubairu Gambo, Chief of Naval Staff (CNS).

As soon as this appointment was announced, commentators began to pour praises on the president for doing things right this time. He was praised by his critics, too. His new appointments are of high quality in terms of official announcements about their background. This was welcomed and pleasing to President’s critics who in the past had accused him of appointing only Northerners. President Buhari has also, apparently, balanced the appointment with respect to the region of origin.

Though the military is the only institution where national identity is stronger than ethnic and religious identities which tend to predominate in Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari has been facing criticisms for his failure to address security issues and, at the same time, especially in the predominantly Christian south, for choosing his military chiefs from among his own northern Muslim Hausa-Fulani community.

But with this recent appointment, critics and even sworn enemies of the president are saying he has done well. Nobody can accuse President Buhari again of appointing only his tribesmen as service chiefs. In the appointment of these service chiefs, two are Hausa and Fulani, one is Yoruba while one is Igbo. Hence the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria appear to be represented: Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo

This is congruent with the principle of “Federal character,” which holds that government positions should be equally distributed across the federation. The new chief of defense staff, Gen.Lucky Irabor, is from Delta State in the South-south. The chief of army staff, Lt-Gen. Ibrahim Attahiru is from Kaduna in the North. The chief of navy staff is Vice Admiral Awwal Zubairu Gambo, is from Kano in the North, and the new air force chief of staff is Air Marshal Isiaka Oladayo Amao, from Osun state, South-west.

Meeting the new appointees at the President Villa, Abuja, the following day after their appointment, President Buhari congratulated them on their new roles while pledging his support to the armed forces. He charged them to be patriotic and serve Nigeria wholeheartedly. It was President Buhari’s first meeting with the service chiefs who were appointed on Tuesday.

They were led to the meeting, which was held behind closed doors, by the Minister of Defence, Major General Bashir Magashi, (rtd). According to a statement by presidential spokesperson, Mr Femi Adesina, the president urged the new appointees to be loyal to the country, adding that the country was in a state of emergency.

“We’re in a state of emergency. Be patriotic, serve the country well, as your loyalty is to the country,” President Buhari said.

“There’s nothing I can tell you about the service because you are in it. I was also in it, and I will pray for you. I also assure you that whatever I can do as Commander-in-Chief will be done so that the people will appreciate your effort,” he was quoted as saying.

The timing may have been a bit off, but the president was spot on with this strategic appointment and his charges to them. Since then many public affairs watchers and commentators have been praising President Buhari over the appointment of these sterling military officers. Prior to his making the appointment, there had been a groundswell of calls from stakeholders on him to change the former service chiefs. The appointment of these new service chiefs represents an exciting new development for the war against terror and banditry.

It is also a culmination of strident calls by stakeholders for a change of strategy in the conflict going on in the North-east Lake Chad Region, especially against the Boko haram insurgents, which has claimed over 100,000 lives since it started in 2009. Equally, data shows that 1000 military and security personnel were killed while about 3.7 million people have been internally displaced, according to the 2021 statistics of the Human Rights Watch.

In its own report, the United Nations Committee on Human Rights (UNCHR), says 30,000 refugees have fled the North-western part of the country to the neighboring Niger Republic in the last two months. According to the reports, “growing insecurity and atrocities across North-western Nigeria, most of it at the hands of armed gangs that rob, loot, rape and kill.”

But with the appointment of this new set of service chiefs and a change of strategy, analysts believe the war on terror and banditry would be won within a short while, judging by the antecedents of the service chiefs. Both Major-General Irabor and Major-General Attahiru have been theatre commanders of operation Lafia Dole, at different times.

And as Nigerians swim in the euphoria of this appointment, they want the roads to be free from kidnappers’ control. Nigerians pray for an end to the insurgency. In order to achieve all these, the citizens expect the new service chiefs to bring new ideas. They desire an entirely new approach to tackling terror and banditry. They spoke of their high expectations and what they believe the new service chiefs should do differently. Tackle Boko Haram, herdsmen from all fronts.

while many Nigerians are happy that this appointment will usher in great benefits for Nigeria. But  John Campbell, an American expert on political and security developments in sub-Saharan Africa has this to say: It remains to be seen whether the new team will be any more successful than the last. The military remains under-resourced. But the drivers of conflict, especially in the north and in the oil patch, are primarily (not exclusively) political. But no political initiatives are underway to address the widespread sense of grievance. Absent political initiatives, critics see the replacement of the service chiefs as reminiscent of “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.”

Does this observation by Campbell really contain some grains of truth? Truth is, there is absolutely none! A lot of Nigerians say reference to the Titanic is far off the mark and derogatory. While many agree that insurgency is like cancer, and fighting it is not an easy thing because it is nature, they believe that the service chiefs will succeed if they work as a team.

Commodore (Dr) Kunle Olawunmi, an associate professor of Criminology and Security Studies, doesn’t share Campbell’s view. He believes the service chiefs will succeed, though insurgency is difficult to fight. He says a soldier is trained to fight external war, not insurgency. That is why the war against insurgency is not a very easy thing. He says it is asymmetry warfare. You can’t easily recognize insurgents, they have no geographical territory, this keeps shifting. So insurgency is like cancer.

“You see, I was once a principal war officer. Who organize the logistics for these people? How come they have such firing power?  One thing to know is there are different dimensions to insurgency-economic, ideological, political dimensions. I would advise Irabor and his team to tackle these dimensions and bring down the center of gravity of insurgency. They can do this if they work as a team. They have what it takes to make Nigeria gainfully tread the path of peace, security and progress”. Says the retired Naval officer..

Many experts share a similar view with Commodore Olawunmi. Former Minister of Defence, Major General Godwin Abbe (retd) says  “For the new men, I think it is important they realize that fighting insurgency is like a team of doctors trying to cure a cancer patient. It is very unprofessional to predict that a cancer patient will be cured or that he will recover fully. That is what insurgency is, all you do is to approach the challenge from various dimensions that could bring the insurgency to submission. In the case of Nigeria, the new service chiefs should try and work together as a team because in unison they will certainly do much better and they should be more ruthless in their approach to acts of disloyalty.”

To Paul Oni, Nigerians will be at peace with the way life is panning out for them as a result of what the new service chiefs will achieve for them if they work as a team. There is also need to counter the ideology of the insurgents while dealing with other dimensions. “The new service chiefs truly have plenty to offer,” says Squadron Leader Paul Oni, (rtd).

“I think it’s important to always give your best in everything you do,” he says. Whatever you do give it your 100 per cent. “These generals will do that and help us achieve some sanity and confidence to move about.”

Indeed Oni seems right. This is because as soon as they were sworn-in by the president, the Chief of Defence Staff went on a visit to Borno state with the other service chiefs.

Little wonder Irabor is the go-to person for major stakeholders looking to up to how a change of strategy in the war against terror could be achieved.  So he has capacity to do things differently from what used to be. He has more experience, resources and intelligence than merely “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as asserted by Campbell. Rather he comes with ideas and innovation to build an entirely new ship with good materials. Having been battle-tested by being theatre commanders of operation Lafia Dole, at different times, underscores how experience will help General Lucky Irabor manage issues as Chief of Defence Staff, advancing the Nigerian armed forces. The same goes for Geneal Atahiru in terms of managing the army. Equally, Air Marshall Oladayo Amao and Rear Admiral Zubairu Gambo, too. Each of them has astounding ability of forecasting trends and solving problems. They will bring their experience to bear in making Nigeria safe and secure for all.

They have all studied and trained in various prestigious institutions across the world and have attended several military, leadership and transformational courses. These courses popular among the military and security personnel are not just about warfare or how to build war strategy  alone, but are also billed to develop peace-building, promote  a community-building ethic and a belief system that values life, rules of engagement, personal development, social responsibility, management  and strategic expression. There are a lot of ‘out of the box’ and different innovations they will bring to bear on the country’s armed forces, ensuring strategic disciplines and practices. So they have all what are needed to end insurgency in the country.

Soon many people will recognise the benefits of their raft of collective efforts as Nigeria begins to reap the benefits of it. This is the opinion of Col Roberts Falola, (rtd).  “The mix of administrative, intelligence and combat actions on all fronts will render some favorable results. Field operations at the North-east theatre will see more success from now on. The western fringe will also see peace. ”

How do you predict that, The TELESCOPE asks Col. Falola

“I don’t have a crystal ball to peer into,” says the 70-something, with a laugh. “I’m able to visualise a day when a lot of things would improve with the activities of these service chiefs. Great services will be delivered to the nation. And confidence and hope would soon replace fear and despondency in different parts of Northern Nigeria. At the same time, the military will transform their operations to implement new global standards.”

He lists a few ‘signals’ that he noticed in different parts of the country. He describes this as coccoing: “People are tired and do not want to go farm and go out at midnight anymore. Restaurants are no longer  crowded on Saturday evenings. New services are not springing up to help them enjoy life any more.

Falola also sees some encouraging signs on the horizon. “We have seen somel improvement at the war against insurgents since the appointment of these generals in the last two months. Their logistics and routes have been destabilized, and  movements curtailed. This was mainly led by better trends in the military which continues to recover ground from the insurgents. This will be further supported by higher activities at the Defence Headquarters and the service chiefs,” he states.

For the time being, seat belts fastened and doing the right things seem to be the formula for future success, fully deployed by these service chiefs. And the Chief of Defence Staff General Irabor took the first step in this direction  when he and his team travelled to Borno state to see Governor Umara Zulum as soon as they assumed office.

These are dedicated, intelligent, outstanding and highly productive officers with good background in value and character.

 

General Leo Irabor is from Agbor in Delta State, he was a member of the Regular Course 39 of the NDA. He served as a Commander Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) of the Nigerian Army, Minna. Irabor also served as Chief of Training and Operations (CTOP), Defence Headquarters. He served as the theatre Commander, Operation Lafiya Dole and headed the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) as the Field Commander. He also served as the Chief of Staff to the Chief of Army Staff. He is a trained engineer.

Lt- General Attahiru Ibrahim until his appointment as the Chief of Army Staff, was the General Officer Commanding 82 Division, Nigerian Army. He was appointed to lead the offensive against Boko Haram in the North-East in May 2017. He was, however, redeployed by the then Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Tukur Buratai after a string of attacks by the insurgents, including after giving him a deadline of 40 days in July of that year to deliver Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau dead or alive.

Air Marshal Isiaka Oladayo Amao, the new Chief of Air Staff, , was born on September 14, 1965 at Enugu. He hails from Oshogbo in Osun State. He enlisted into the Nigerian Air Force on January 19, 1984, as a member of the 35 Regular Course of the Nigerian Defence Academy. He had previously served as Trainee/Squadron Pilot, NAF Unit 99 ACTG Kainji (1993-2004), Instructor Pilot/Squadron Pilot, 301 FTS Kaduna (2004-2007), Air Assistance to Chief of Air Staff, Deputy Defence Adviser, Nigerian High Commission London, Assistant Director of Operation Defence Headquarters, Director of Policy and Plans, Nigerian Air Force. Until his appointment, Amao was the Commandant Armed Forces Resettlement Centre Lagos.

Vice Admiral Awwal Zubairu Gambo was born on 22 April 22, 1966, and hails from Nasarawa Local Council in Kano State. He enlisted in the NN on September 24, 1984, as a member of Regular Course 36 and was commissioned Sub-Lieutenant on September 24, 1988. He is an Underwater Warfare specialist with a sub-specialisation in Intelligence. The senior officer has attended several military courses, which include; Sub-Technical course and Officers Long course both at NNS QUORRA. He also attended Junior Division 48/89 and Senior Course 26 both at AFCSC Jaji.

Other courses attended include the National Defence Course at the South African National Defence College. Until his recent appointment as the CNS, he was the Director of Procurement at the Defence Space Administration. He holds a PGD in Transport Management and a Master’s degree in Transport Management (Logistics option), both from the Ladoke Akintola University of Technology.

These brilliant trend-spotters and very patriotic officers would be opting for a strongly intelligence-infused operations which has become vital to boost performance. With them good times are here,  the ship of the state remains afloat and stifle away vitality from insurgency and banditry. That way, Nigeria can find the real treasures to stand on in the service chiefs.