There are some important personalities that will shape Nigeria’s social and political this 2023. They range from political actors, heads of public institutions, business leaders, traditional rulers and others. Prominent among these are President Buhari, the letterman, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, INEC chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, IG-P, Usman Alkali Baba, CJN, Justice Olukayode Ariwoola, NPC, Isa-Kwarra ,the presidential candidates Senator Bola Tinubu, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Then the People’ Democratic Party (PDP) Iyorchia Ayu and the G-5 governors , led by Rivers state governor, Nyesom Wike.
Nigeria’s 2023 general election is just weeks away. With President Mohammadu Buhari term-limited, the country will be choosing a new leader. Also a new crop of leaders is also expected to emerge at the parliament. The elections for the National Assembly would be held on the same day as the presidential. The actions of the president will go a long way toward the success of this and determine a lot of thing for the ordinary man this year.
Of course, what ordinary Nigerians want is clear enough: economic opportunity; security; political accountability; an end to corrupt Big Man rule; and improved investment in health, education, and infrastructure. Working with local partners and investors across the country, President Buhari has been doing his best to achieve these and also strengthen institutions and democratic values. The structures being put on ground can help stimulate a new era of foreign direct investment in projects and initiatives that will spark economic growth and reduce dependence on frequently wayward states such as China. But on issues of election, nothing but absolute commitment is expected of him.
Buhari’s will do much to shape activities in Nigeria within the year. Though he has assured Nigerians that he would bequeath the country with credible elections and give the electoral body free hands to conduct the exercise, all eyes are on him to fulfil the pledges.
“INEC is ready because I made sure they were given all the resources they asked because I don’t want any excuses that they were denied funds by the government,” Buhari said while responding to a question on the readiness of INEC to conduct the elections in Washington DC, USA, at an interactive session titled: “A Conversation with President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria”, on December 17, 2022.
And these are reasons for optimism that the upcoming polls will be an improvement on the 2019 election. The retired general wants a credible, transparent electoral process to be an important part of his legacy. he put in place, legal reforms enabled earlier planning and new technology has been deployed to improve voter accreditation and the transmission of results.
A surge of new voter registration, especially among young people, suggests that Nigerians believe the 2023 elections are a process worth their time and energy.
Nigerians expect that the president will ensure a smooth transition of power to the winner of the February 25, presidential election. Before then, he is expected to step up his campaigns against terrorism and banditry and complete some of his legacy projects.
He is expected to end subsidy on petroleum products. As announced by the federal government. A deadline of June has been set. The president has laid the foundation for this with his assent to the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). But the issue of credible transparent elections count more.
INEC Chair, Yakubu
The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu, is also on the radar as he oversees and gives directions on the conduct of the polls to national commissioners who in turn supervise the Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) in states.
He is expected to ensure the electoral umpire functions independently and free from external influence. The commission, under him, is also expected to display openness and transparency in all its activities and its relationship with all stakeholders. So the success or otherwise of the elections rests largely on Yakubu’s shoulders. Of course, INEC, under Yakubu, has demonstrated a determination to conduct credible elections in this year 2023. His coming up with technological innovations is a right step in the right direction, despite serious opposition from some quarters. The beauty of it all is it that will make rigging impossible for politicians.
To ensure constitutional backing for its action, INEC ,sometimes last year, sensitised Nigerians to put pressure on the National Assembly and the Executive arm of the government to ensure the signing of the amended Electoral Act 2022. This electoral law helped to define off-season elections conducted in 2022 by curbing malpractices.
The technological innovations brought up by INEC has forced politicians to sit up and bond more with the electorate ahead of the 2023 general election since it won’t be business as usual.
Recall that three out-of-season elections in the FCT, Ekiti, Anambra and Osun states held in 2022 to test-run INEC’s innovations and technology. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) was fully deployed. It is one of the technological innovations INEC has devised to identify and accredit voters’ fingerprints and facial recognition before voting. It is also used for capturing images of the polling unit result sheet (Form EC8A) and uploading the image of the result sheet online.
So those states used for the test-running of INEC’s innovations, courtesy of the improved electoral law, benefitted from the BVAS system.
With this technology, alteration of votes at polling units, distortion of number of accredited voters, collation of false results, mutilation of results and computational errors, swapping of results sheets, forging of results sheets, snatching and destruction of results sheets, obtaining declaration and return involuntarily, making declaration and return while result collation is still in progress and poor record-keeping, will no longer be prevalent in future elections.
Equally the commission’s Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV) is another technology in the form of online portal where polling unit-level results are uploaded directly from the polling unit, transmitted, and published for the public.
Yakubu’s determination to use these technologies in 2023 elections has unruffled some feathers but the electoral umpire has demonstrated a strong determination to put the election riggers out of business in February 25th polls.
IGP, Baba
The Inspector General of Police (IGP), Usman Alkali Baba, is carrying a very heavy load of integrity and patrotism. This is because the neutrality of the police is critical in 2023 elections. Baba has the mandate to coordinate the police and other security agencies to ensure the elections are conducted peacefully.
Of course, he had already declared that the Nigeria Police, the military and other security forces were fully prepared to ensure free, fair, credible and acceptable polls in 2023.
“We are assuring Nigerians and the international community that the 2023 general elections will hold as planned by the Independent National Electoral Commission in all the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja. The country is enjoying relative peace now and we are going to sustain this, the President and Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces, Muhammadu Buhari has promised times without numbers to give the nation peaceful, free and fair elections, come 2023.
“The president has been keeping to his words by encouraging us and the security forces towards achieving this, we will have no excuse to fail the nation. Nigerians too have been helping the police and other security agencies with credible information in their localities,” he reportedly said.
He drummed that contrary to speculations in some quarters that the forthcoming polls may not hold in some parts of the country due to security concerns, the elections would hold nationwide as scheduled by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The IG-P had also warned political actors to play by the rules of the game and to stop overheating the system, saying the era of ballot box snatching was gone for good in the country based on the various innovations introduced into the system by INEC.
Ahead of the polls, the country has continued to witness election-related violence. Scores of people have been killed and dozens injured in different clashes. This is just as the menace of banditry is still terrorising the North West; farmers/herders clashes in the North Central; Boko Haram in the North East; IPOB in the South East and pockets of security breaches being recorded in the South West.
The neutrality of the police is another issue that Baba is expected to ensure.
CJN, Ariwoola
“As the Chief Justice of Nigeria, I will not condone any act of recklessness, abuse of power and public trust,” Mr Ariwoola warned the judicial officers who will be handling post-election cases.
The Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Olukayode Ariwoola, presides over the Supreme Court, the highest court in Nigeria which decisions are final. Some of the litigations that will follow the elections will end at the apex court.
Ahead of the elections, the CJN on November 7, 2022, inaugurated members of the 2023 Election Petitions Tribunals. A total of 307 judges will be serving on the tribunals set up to adjudicate disputes that may arise from the 2023 elections.
The Court of Appeal coordinates and serves as the secretariat of the election petitions tribunals across the country. According to authoritative sources, members of the tribunals are expected to be deployed to states this January. Also some of the cases will end at the apex court, the CJN will constitute panels of the Supreme Court that will entertain post-election cases that would drag to the apex court.
All eyes are on CJN Ariwoola to fully monitor and address allegations of corruption and misconduct that may be levelled against judicial officials as he is the Chairman of the National Judicial Council (NJC).
National Population Commission, Isa-Kwarra
2006 was the last time national population census took place in Nigeria. Seventeen years after, the country is gearing up for the conduct of another national population census. The exercise was last held back in 2006 during the time of former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The exercise, which ideally is to be conducted every 10 years, has now been scheduled for April this year. A pilot census was held in July last year. It is recently reported that the exercise would be held under the chairmanship of Nasir Isa-Kwarra. Thus all eyes are on him as he is expected to supervise the conduct of the exercise.
Experts say the importance of census cannot be overestimated as it is the centre of every planning activity, and that no meaningful development can be achieved without taking census data into account.
Frontline presidential candidates
A total of 18 presidential candidates have indicated interest in taking over the job of President Muhammadu Buhari on May 29, this year, but the pendulum is swinging towards the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar; Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). The fate of the candidates would be determined by 84 million registered voters in 176,846 polling units of the country.
Atiku Abubakar
Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, Turaki Adamawa is the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The former vice president is a strong political force, and one of those that will help to shape the Nigerian politics in 2023. As a former vice president who had contested the presidential elections several times, Atiku has built alliances and bridges across all the states in the country. His wide contacts and connections will provide a formidable structure that will influence the outcome of the 2023 general election. As the candidate of the PDP, which is one of the three frontline political parties, Atiku is a major factor to watch in 2023. His political base, the North, with her intimidating voting population, will be a major determinant of the outcome of the elections.
Bola Tinubu
The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu became a formidable national political force after he dismantled all the plots against him and emerged as the presidential candidate of the ruling party.
With his deep pocket, Tinubu, a political strategist, has built strong contacts and alliances in all the states across the country. His support groups have penetrated every nook and cranny of the country, promoting his presidential ambition. The former Lagos State governor had played a key role in the emergence of President Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential election.
Tinubu is no doubt a strong factor in the 2023 politics.
Peter Obi
Many political analysts did not take the former governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi serious when emerged as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP).
Before he joined the LP, Obi was a presidential aspirant on the platform of the PDP where he also contested the 2019 elections as the vice presidential candidate of the party.
Shortly before the presidential primary of the PDP, Obi resigned from the party and joined the LP, which many had described as a party without a structure that could win a presidential election.
Amazingly, the sooner than he joined the LP than the Nigerian youths who are his support base, elevated a political party without a formidable structure to a mass movement. The youths organised massive pre-campaign rallies across the major cities in the country, which unlike other political rallies, were not influenced by monetary inducements.
Obi has consistently told his critics who claimed that he had no formidable structure to clinch power next year that those making such assertion were referring to political structures of corruption and criminality which he doesn’t have and strongly abhors.
Obi has also argued that the type of structures that his critics were talking about involves bribery and corruption; and also sharing money to acclaimed political stakeholders to enlist their support and help in rigging elections.
LP was said to lack structures but Obi’s supporters, mainly the youths, have formed formidable structures to promote his presidential aspiration.
Various states in the country stood still when these youths marched through their state capitals and these sent shock waves across the PDP and the APC. The former Anambra State governor is a major factor that will shape the 2023 politics.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
The presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Mr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, will also be a force to reckon with in the politics of 2023. Though none of the various local and international polls has favoured him, his popularity in Kano State in particular can erode the votes of any of the three major candidates and change the political permutations that could lead to a runoff.
The efforts made for Kwankwaso and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) to form a joint ticket failed as the former Kano State governor insisted that he would be the presidential candidate in the joint ticket. Interestingly, the various polls conducted at different times predicted victory for the presidential candidates of the three major political parties – Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Obi of the LP. None of the various polls favoured Kwankwaso as he was said to be popular only in his home state, which however, has the second-largest voting population, after Lagos State. Many political analysts have predicted that his alliance with any of the three major candidates can be a game changer. However, such an alliance is still unlikely, in view of his body language and comments.
G-5 Governors
Member of the G-5 are also important this 2023. Led by the lion-hearted Governor Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, this group will have an impact on whichever side they decide to throw their support. T
he five governors led by Wike have not made known their preferred presidential candidate between Bola Tinubu of APC and Peter Obi of the LP but it is expected that they will reveal their choice in the coming days.
Wike used the unlimited resources at his disposal to make remarkable impact in the presidential primary of the PDP. But despite the huge resources he deployed to pursue his ambition, he lost the presidential ticket to the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
He also lost the party’s vice presidential ticket to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State. Since he lost both tickets, he has aligned with four other governors – Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Samuel Ortom (Benue) and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), to work against Atiku. Wike and his allies, who are referred to as G-5, are insisting that the National Chairman of the party, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, should relinquish his position to the southerner as a condition to support Atiku.
Wike said he would not only tell his people who to vote for but would campaign for his choice of presidential candidate throughout the country. “Nothing will happen,” he added.
With the large voting population in Rivers State, Wike’s choice of presidential election, which may potentially be the choice of the G-5, will be a game changer in the 2023 politics.
Iyorchia Ayu
How the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) manages the agitation for the resignation of its national chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu is critical in the 2023 elections
Ayu will be a strong factor in Nigerian politics in 2023 due to the crisis rocking his party following the calls for his resignation.
Ayu emerged at a time the main opposition party was enmeshed in crisis over the zoning of 2023 presidency and the tenure of Prince Uche Secondus-led National Working Committee (NWC).
Many had thought that the former university lecturer would concentrate efforts to navigate the party through the raging storms.
Little did analysts know that his emergence would inflict more wounds on the party.
The emergence of Ayu as the National Chairman of the party in its October 30, 2021 National Convention had given the initial impression that the main opposition party was going to zone the presidency to the South. But the party threw the position open to all the six geopolitical zones. This led to the emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the party to the dissatisfaction of many southern leaders of the party, including Governors Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, among other party leaders from South. Even Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State also voiced his preference for a southern presidential candidate.
When the former vice president won the primary, Wike and four other governors insisted that Ayu should resign but his supporters insisted that he would only resign if Atiku wins the 2023 presidency.
With the refusal of Ayu to resign, Wike and the four other governors have been working against Atiku. The Rivers State governor and his allies are set to unveil their preferred choice of presidential candidate. Many believe that no matter how the pendulum swings, the Ayu factor will shape the politics of 2023.
Prominent Nigerian elites
Influential opinion leaders and elders will also be quite visible on the national landscape this year. These lelement are guided more by patriotism than any other thing as the want the best for the country. Prominent among these are former President Olusegun Obasanjo, former head of state General Abdulsalami Abubakar, General Theophilus Danjuma, Chief Edwin Clarke, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Chief Afe Babalola, Barr Femi Falana among others. Of these, Chief Obasanjo seems the most controversial, with his letters.
Traditional rulers
The traditional institutions can be of immense benefit to the security institutions in complementing their efforts at resolving civil conflicts before they degenerate into violent conflicts. They will play this role this year to stem any disturbance that may arise from the general election 2023. These include most notably Sa’adu Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto and Sarkin Musulmi of Nigeria, current Co-Chair of the National Council of Traditional Rulers, Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, Ooni of Ife, current Co-Chair of the National Council of Traditional Rulers, Muhammad al-Amin al-Kanemi, Shehu of Borno, the Oba of Benin and Obi of Onitsha.
Creating fear and hatred is not the best option to dealing with any outbreak of the confusion in political matters. But some elements and non-state actors may want to create crises in the aftermath of the elections, if any of the major parties feel aggrieved. They can just throw off fake information that can spread animosity.
Some information can trigger social disharmony and behaviours in some areas against anyone perceived to have different interest. This can undermine social solidity, solidariy and prompt possible social tension among groups, which might contribute to a situation where the confusion is more, not less, likely to spread
.It is understandable that if there is such confusion, anxiety and fear will spread among the public. These factors are also capable of fuelling harmful labels, which can throw the country into chaos like those of June 12, 1993. A pointer to the possibility of this is the incessant attacks on INEC’s critical assets by gunmen and arsonists across several states since two years ago.
Fortunately, these eminent traditional rulers are on ground to promptly respond to such challenges. Their hallowed presence and response will extinguish any fire of confusion around their domains.
As the de facto arbitrators at the community level, their technical capability may be called upon this year as they continue playing the role of grievance managers.